Lighter (LIT)

ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 will likely trade at $20+ in the coming years....such a cracked team, growing marketshare, and bullish market segment.

Perpification of the world is on.

My thesis on why i’d buy more $LIT over $HYPE:

sure, hyperliquid is clearly the better business today.

more volume, deeper liquidity, higher revenue, stronger buybacks, a full ecosystem around it. there’s no debate there.

but markets pay you for what changes next, and LIT has more room for that.

HYPE is already valued like the category winner.

LIT is still a much smaller asset, so even a small closing of the gap in volume, open interest or revenue can move the token much harder.

the Robinhood integration is the catalyst I care about most.

cuz distribution is usually the hardest thing for a new exchange to build. Lighter now gets access to an existing retail funnel instead of having to acquire every trader one by one.

if those users turn into real recurring volume, the current valuation starts looking very different.

supply also looks cleaner for LIT over the next few months.

only a part of the total supply is circulating, a meaningful amount of that float is staked, team and investor unlocks haven’t started yet, and trading revenue is already being used for buybacks and burns.

so until the December cliff, you have:

- low liquid float
- no active insider unlocks
- tokens being staked
- daily buybacks removing supply

HYPE has a much stronger and more proven buyback engine, but contributor unlocks are already running. it can absorb that because the business prints serious revenue, but the supply pressure is active now.

LIT gets a cleaner window before its own unlocks begin.

and that’s important because this is not a forever hold thesis.

once LIT’s team and investor unlocks start in late December, the setup changes fast. new supply will begin hitting the market every day, and by then I want Robinhood distribution, revenue and buybacks to be much higher than they are now.

so the bet is pretty simple:

HYPE already proved the machine works.

LIT still has a catalyst that can materially change the numbers before the supply picture gets worse.

if Robinhood usage stays weak, revenue doesn’t grow and the volume is mostly incentive farming, the thesis dies.

but with $1M and only one to choose.. I’d still choose the smaller asset with the cleaner near-term supply and more room to rerate.

$LIT here.

just because the upside from being right is much bigger…

if you wish to trade on Lighter:

https://t.co/Vl2YqIMiHv