Circle Internet Group (Derivatives) (CRCL)

I lost $180,000 in CRCL, which is about ¥1.26 million RMB, in just 3 days. I'm truly devastated.

Bought at 82, then added to lower the cost, bought 1.2 million U, and on Thursday night at 9:30 the market opened and it crashed again.

Seeing the K‑line chart broke me; in just three trading days it fell that much—damn it, it was BTC with 4× leverage.

Everyone else’s big cake (i.e., Bitcoin) rebounded, but this trash CRCL still dropped 18%.

That night I cut my losses at 69.2 and the next day it bounced back 10%; I don’t regret exiting.

Yesterday I saw a plunge of 17.55%—damn, US stocks are so brutal.

In summary, I blame myself for venturing into an unfamiliar field.

I’m inexperienced, I’m an idiot.

Odds dropped 10% today on the Clarity Act passing this year on the same day $CRCL drops double digits on news of a new stable coin (OUSD). All while Bitcoin is trying to find support. Crypto could use some direction right now outside of more memes being the solution. https://t.co/JweimG6wfk

$CRCL back above $60, a few thoughts:

1. CRCL is like Tesla, stablecoin compliance is like open source. After open sourcing, anyone can make electric cars, but it’s best for Tesla, because only then people develop a habit of using EVs, the whole market grows faster, and in a larger market each person finds their niche and takes a piece—some focus on large TV sofas, others on FSD.

2. Even the best projects shouldn’t be all‑in—what matters is not how you view it, but how the market views it.

3. Moats have to be built; whether you can overcome them is only known by walking the path—but they must be built. I think challenging USDC is not easy.

4. Value investing relies on holding, but why is holding hard? Because various challenges and uncertainties always arise.

5. The level of skill in investing is about how you think and act in the toughest times—everyone must own the cost of their choices.

6. CRCL faces three future challenges:
1) New stablecoins will keep emerging, some targeting the B‑side, some from investment banks; in the open market, USDC remains the largest compliant player.

2) CB’s revenue share will persist long‑term—if CB wants to push new ones, that’s better; renegotiate agreements. If not, you keep helping expand USDC’s share and get a cut.

3) The ultimate benefit will be how much compliant B‑side USDC can capture—but we should assume it won’t capture much; the main focus is the C‑side and open market, which currently is hard to rely on in crypto, followed by trading and prediction markets. The most important variable for growth is which stablecoin will be used for compliant US‑stock on‑chain solutions; theoretically none is mandated—USD1 could be used—but ultimately it depends on user choice. This is a mid‑term variable worth watching.